Rather than focus on the positive figures for this year in the article, which are strong indicators of many things for the parcel companies and the broader economy, we are going to look ahead a bit. Take into consideration that FedEx is posting its busiest day ever, at a time when the economy is still arguably struggling.
Unemployment is still rampant and the effective unemployment rate is still in the 18-19% range. Imagine what the sales figures will be like when the economy fully recovers. With the growth of online retail sales in the double digits and apparently continuing to work that direction for the average consumer (doing more online shopping), there are some significant transportation implications as a result. Instead of the consumer footing the bill for transportation (going to a retail brick-and-mortar store to make a purchase and take it home), a larger portion of the goods now being purchased for Christmas are needing someone else to deliver them to the home - namely the parcel companies. So, as the percentage of online shopping increases by double-digit factors each year, the parcel companies (including the USPS) will directly benefit.
What this might create for the parcel sector is a need to increase operating capacity in order to handle this significant growth that could come as early as next fall if the economy is healing. There are no signs by retailers that they will curtail their promotions of online sales and deals at any time, if anything, they are getting more aggressive. So, what is more likely to happen is that there will be a growing need for retailers to embrace their online sales operations (warehousing, distribution, etc.) and create a strategy that allows them to maximize inventory turns throughout both the brick-and-mortar and online retail worlds. Supply chain management in a co-mingled online/offline world is probably one of the biggest trends we can put our finger on. With new middle-market consumers popping up all over the world, the demand for unique products can come from any market - anywhere. So, even if the US is not really showing us a super robust US consumer, we could be seeing increased demand from China, India, Singapore, South Korea, Brazil, etc. FedEx, UPS, and DHL will benefit from these types of trends where consumers are willing to forgo the extra time and shipping costs to make an online purchase from an exclusive shop somewhere in the world. That is what the newest product sales trends for Christmas will look like in the future. The more exclusive and obscure the gift, the better. It's an interesting and fun dynamic that could really change the transportation world - and allow the cottage retail industry worldwide really take off.