Fuel prices continue to rise, for a variety of reasons. The bottom line is that as pump prices start to go up above $3 a gallon, ridership is likely to increase as well. Even though most of the ridership statistics can be discounted because of the high unemployment rate (many of those becoming unemployed coming in highly dense areas), there are still reasons to be positive about the amount of revenue that might be flowing into the mass transit systems. Gasoline above $3 a gallon will push many people to start taking public transit – rather than continue to commute themselves. And, with ridership generally down because of overall economic reasons, many people are likely to find that the systems they used to ride may have different commuting patterns (not as busy as once experienced). In other words, the public transportation experience may be different this time – and slightly better than they experienced in 2008 when gas prices were high as well.
What we have to watch for is the roll that gas prices play on commuter traffic patterns. Gas prices will likely ease in the spring once again after the cold winter months are finished taking a toll on oil prices. But, weathering the next couple of months will be a big problem for many people – and it could be enough so to push them to experiment with mass transit again. For the rest of the population that have been commuting all along, this will look much like an additional cost that they have really little control over. Just as everyone has to take a bite out of their pocketbook because of higher gas prices, they will feel the hike in rates as well.