If there is a bottom line on the TSI, it is that the volumes in the freight industry are indeed improving – but we are woefully short of being at levels that we saw in the mid-2000’s. That is part of the rationale behind the predictions that analysts are making about the role of drivers and upcoming capacity needs. There were spot shortages of drivers for the truckload sector even this year. A combination of retirements of older drivers over the past several years, the number of drivers that were laid off that have now found other work, and the lack of new trainees and student drivers coming into the industry has led to a prediction that the trucking industry will be between 200,000 and 400,000 drivers short of meeting demand in the next two years. That’s where the TSI has importance.
If the trucking and rail industries are now scaled to current economic levels – imagine the pressure put upon them when the TSI really starts to climb. We may not see that in the early part of 2011, but hopefully by the end of 2011, some of that real growth has started to work its way into the marketplace. At that time, we will know whether the truck driver shortage predictions are really true and whether we will be able to meet demand quickly moving forward. Many drivers will come out of the laid off construction sector pool of qualified CDL drivers. But, as soon as the construction industry rebounds, those workers will always opt for the better work hours and work environment in the construction sector.